Potential Marmara region earthquake may lead to 11.9 billion USD in insured losses

The Turkish Insurance and Private Pension Regulation and Supervision Agency (SEDDK) and T-Rupt Technology, a subsidiary of Türk Reasürans, have conducted a seismic stress test to assess the potential financial impact of an earthquake in the Marmara Sea region.

According to the study, an earthquake measuring between 7.1 and 7.4 on the Richter scale could generate insured losses ranging from 380 to 500 billion TRY (9.1 to 11.9 billion USD).

These estimates factor in potential damage to industrial facilities, businesses, and residential properties across ten provinces: Istanbul, Kocaeli, Bursa, Tekirdağ, Sakarya, Balıkesir, Çanakkale, Bilecik, Yalova, and Edirne. Insurance companies currently provide coverage totaling 11.5 trillion TRY (274 billion USD) in these provinces.

The projected losses would amount to roughly four times the 5 billion USD paid out by insurers and the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) following the 6 February 2023 earthquake in Kahramanmaras.